Suez Canal Traffic Still 60% Below Pre-Crisis Levels After 100 Days

12.01.2026

More than three months after the last reported attack in the Red Sea, transit through the Suez Canal remains severely constrained, according to BIMCO.

In the first week of 2026, vessel passages were still around 60% lower than in the same period of 2023, before large-scale diversions via the Cape of Good Hope began.

Despite Houthi announcements about halting attacks, the market remains cautious. Since January 2024, quarterly deadweight volumes transiting the canal have consistently stayed 51–64% below 2023 levels, with little change throughout 2025.

Container shipping has been hit the hardest:

- Q4 2025 container ship transits were 86% below pre-crisis levels

- Bulk carriers: –55%

- Crude oil tankers: –32%

- Product tankers: –19%

Product tankers stand out as a partial exception, as higher freight premiums have encouraged some return to the route. Container lines, however, largely continue to rely on alternative routings, though a few operators have signaled a gradual return, conditional on sustained security improvements.

Another potential catalyst is the decline in Red Sea war risk insurance premiums, now down to around 0.2% of hull value, the lowest level since late 2023.

According to BIMCO, a full normalization of Suez transit would reduce operating costs for shipowners — but also lower demand for tonnage. If the route fully reopens, demand for container ships could fall by around 10%, while other segments may see a 2–3% decline, making the pace of recovery a key factor for overall market balance.

BIMCO, founded in 1905, is the world’s largest international shipping association, representing shipowners, operators, and charterers across the global maritime industry.