Suez Canal toll earnings set to continue falling, as vessels re-route around the Cape of Good Hope
07.02.2024
As we enter into the third month of escalating conflict in Yemen that has prompted significant rerouting of vessels with far-reaching consequences for global trade and transport, the latest trade data from Veson Nautical indicates a notable shift in traffic patterns. Geopolitical tensions and conflict have raised maritime security concerns in the region, given its strategic importance and critical maritime trade routes.
In addition, the ongoing crisis in Yemen has implications for traffic through the Suez Canal and therefore Egypt, which may incur substantial costs due to the disruptions in trade and transport. Although this situation could potentially serve as a catalyst for increased diplomatic efforts to broker peace, considering the economic losses incurred by the Egyptian government as a result of the crisis. Understanding the economic impact on Egypt and specifically the Suez Canal might encourage a more proactive approach towards resolving the conflict and mitigating its adverse effects on global trade.
We take a look at the changes in the Suez Canal toll fees for crude Tankers, Bulkers, LNG, LPG and Containers over the period spanning from the beginning of 2023 to early January 2024. This analysis provides valuable insight into the financial implications for the Suez Canal and for the Egyptian government as Suez Canal transits reach a low.
Overall toll fees fall c.40% since November 2023
South Korean forwarders look at air and rail alternatives amid container freight surges
05.02.2024
A seminar organised by Korea International Trade Association on 30 January heard that South Korean exporters and forwarders are inclined to substitute air and rail freight for sea freight, as they expect the Red Sea crisis to last until at least mid-2024. The crisis has caused container freight costs to increase by 44% from December 2023.
During the seminar, Seo Don-seok, team leader at forwarding group Samsung SDS’ digital platform Cello Square said, “Transportation times are increasing and there are potential risks, so reinsurance companies have recently announced that it is difficult to compensate for cargo insurance. Shippers’ burdens are increasing every day.
“If this persists, forwarders will shift to air freight, prioritising high-value products. It’s very likely that as a result, air freight will go up.”
Seo suggested that cargo bound for the US and Mexico should be railed or trucked via Long Beach.
He said, “Rail is the cheapest, but transhipment by sea takes more time, taking two to three weeks. While it takes about seven to 10 days to use a single truck, a team truck driven by two drivers arrives in about three days and is the fastest, but is more expensive.”
Meanwhile, sea freight rates to Europe have risen to the point of being on par with rail freight.
Seo noted, “We recommend railing goods from Xi'an, China using the Trans-China Railway, which is more reliable than other regional platforms.”
The diversions round the Cape of Good Hope have also made it difficult to secure shipping slots.
Other forwarders said that it is also taking a long time for empty containers to be returned that they now have to secure containers before arranging shipping.
Ramses Logistics director Bae Byung-seok called the Houthi scourge in the Red Sea the second major logistical crisis after Covid-19.
He said, “The Red Sea crisis won’t end anytime soon. We expect the situation to remain into the first half of the year. Now, we have to start looking for empty containers before competing for slots. That said, we expect that Chinese exports will decline after the Lunar New Year, so shipping capacity won’t be so tight. We see that liner operators are blanking sailings as freight rates are cooling off.
“In abnormal circumstances, as was the case during the pandemic, we must endure even if local inventory take two to three months longer to clear out.”
Hwang Gyu-young, a team leader at forwarder LX Pantos, urged attendees to sit out the situation, as circumstances will eventually normalise.
He said, “The Red Sea attacks occurred suddenly and this placed a premium on freight rates. We believe the situation will be resolved. Freight rates will stay elevated until end of 1Q 2024, and correct gradually.”
Yang Ming not tempted to charter ships amid Red Sea crisis
29.01.2024
Taiwanese liner operator Yang Ming Marine Transport will not follow its peers and charter in more ships to capitalise on the Red Sea crisis.
Speaking at a seminar organised by Chung-Hwa Institution for Economic Research on 24 January, Yang Ming chairman Cheng Cheng-mount said, “There is still a tonnage overhang, but the Red Sea crisis that has caused many ships to detour round the Cape of Good Hope has resulted in freight rates jumping in the short term. Economic data is mixed and the market is actually volatile.”
It has been estimated that 90% of ships that previously transited the Suez Canal are now moving round the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The detours have extended Asia-Europe sailing times by 15 days, absorbing excess vessels.
MSC, Maersk Line and other operators have been chartering more ships as tonnage availability tightens, but Yang Ming is refraining from doing so.
Cheng noted, “Freight rates aren’t things that the industry can determine. Many ships are expected to have to queue up to enter European ports after passing through the Cape of Good Hope. I'm afraid there will be another round of port congestion that we saw during Covid-19.
“The container shipping sector is actually oversupplied as the Covid-19-induced pressure on the global supply chain has continued to ease. The fluctuations caused by the Red Sea crisis may inhibit economic growth. If the (Red Sea) crisis gradually subsides and demand is obviously weak, the situation will eventually normalise.”
Cheng reminded attendees that the World Bank estimates that the global economy will enter its third year of slowdown in 2024. Multiple international events and geopolitical conflicts have occurred in succession, resulting in economic development facing a slowdown.
Cheng pointed out, “The outlook for global economic growth in 2024 is the lowest since 2022, making this year full of uncertainties.”
Dubai advances in green transport systems with two new collaborations
22.01.2024
Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) is taking a huge step forward in green transport innovation. During the Dubai International Project Management Forum (DIPMF), the RTA signed two key memoranda of understanding (MoUs) to explore futuristic transportation solutions.
The first MoU focuses on the potential development of the Floc Duo Rail system.
Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to form new alliance
18.01.2024
Two container giants, Denmark's Maersk and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd have signed an agreement for a new long-term operational collaboration.
The new "Gemini Cooperation" is expected to start in February 2025 with the ambition to deliver a "flexible and interconnected ocean network with industry-leading reliability".
Hapag-Lloyd's CEO said, “Teaming up with Maersk will help us to further boost the quality we deliver to our customers. Additionally, we will benefit from efficiency gains in our operations and joint efforts to further accelerate the decarbonisation of our industry.”
The new cooperation between the two companies will comprise a fleet pool of around 290 vessels with a combined capacity of 3.4 million TEUs with Maersk deploying 60% and Hapag-Lloyd the remaining 40%.
Read the initial service network plan for Gemini here
“We are pleased to enter this cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd, which is the ideal ocean partner on our strategic journey. By entering this cooperation, we will be offering our customers a flexible ocean network that will raise the bar for reliability in the industry. This will strengthen our integrated logistics offering and meet our customers’ needs,” commented Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk.
As a part of the agreement, the two companies have set the target of delivering schedule reliability of above 90% once the network is fully phased in.
As a consequence of joining this cooperation, Hapag-Lloyd will leave THE Alliance end of January 2025, when the 2M alliance of Maersk and MSC will also be terminated.
During 2024, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will plan the transition from their current alliances to the new operational cooperation, while service to customers will continue along existing agreements.