How Will the Israel-Iran Conflict Affect the Tanker Market?
16.06.2025
In the early hours of Friday, June 13, Israel launched several waves of airstrikes on Iran, targeting command-and-control centers, ballistic-missile bases and air-defense batteries as well as nuclear installations. The attacks also killed several Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel indicated that this is only the beginning of a campaign that can last for days or even weeks. The question is, what will happen next? How will Iran respond? Will the United States get involved? What will be the impact on the oil and tanker markets? We don’t have any answers, but we can discuss a few scenarios and look back at what happened during previous conflicts in the region.
In an immediate response, Iran launched a drone attack on Israel, but that was largely ineffective. Most of them were shot down and no significant damage was reported. Since then, Iran has started firing ballistic missiles towards Israel. Analysts do expect a forceful response from Tehran, not least because the regime has to save face with their domestic population. However, their options are limited. The Israeli attacks have reduced Iran’s ability to reach Israel and inflict significant damage. The capabilities of Iran’s proxies in the region, Hamas, Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq and the Houthi’s have been diminished and the Assad regime in Syria has been toppled.
Iran does have options to retaliate. They could try to close the Strait of Hormuz or disrupt shipping at this chokepoint through which more than 20% of global oil supplies are shipped. They could attack oil installations in neighboring countries or target U.S. military bases in the region.
However, all of these potential actions carry significant risks. Closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking energy infrastructure in the region will spike energy prices, turn all their neighbors into adversaries and more likely than not draw the U.S. military, which has a large presence in the region, into the conflict. Closing the Straits of Hormuz may also hamper Iran’s own export capabilities and give the Israelis and/or Americans an incentive to attack their energy infrastructure (refineries, pipelines, export terminals, etc.). Losing the income from energy exports would quickly exhaust Iran’s resources and ability to fight back.
In the immediate aftermath of the Israeli attacks, both oil prices and tanker rates moved up. This was to be expected and is a normal reaction to a spike in geopolitical tensions and an increased risk of significant disruptions to global energy supplies. Where oil prices will go over the next few days and weeks, will depend on whether there will be actual disruptions to oil supply. Overall, the global oil markets are well supplied, and inventories are at healthy levels worldwide.
Iranian supplies are increasingly at risk, however. Even before Israel’s attack, most oil market forecasts already assumed a decline in Iranian production over the coming months, leading to a decrease in Iranian exports of around 400-500 kb/d. This figure will likely increase if the conflict escalates. Chinese independent refiners, which buy almost all Iran’s oil, will need to look for alternative sources of crude, and they could try to buy more discounted crude from Russia or look for alternative barrels in the Middle East.
Tanker rates also rose after the attacks, in particular for VLCCs, the main vessel class for Arabian Gulf exports. Similar to the reaction of oil prices, this is a normal development under the circumstances. Rates for the benchmark Arabian Gulf (AG)-East VLCC route increased from WS43 to W55. However, while the increase is significant in percentage terms, the tanker market remains in the summer doldrums. Further rate increases are possible over the next few days, depending on how the conflict evolves, but it is also possible that the market weakens again after the weekend. In previous conflicts, charterers sometimes panicked and, in an attempt to access additional cargoes, fixing activity would rise dramatically. At the same time, shipowners would become increasingly reluctant to enter high risk areas such as the Arabian Gulf. This combination of factors would push tanker rates much higher very quickly. We are not in this scenario at the moment. According to our tanker brokers, fixing activity has not surged so far and most owners are still willing to bring their tankers into the AG. However, this can change quickly. Stay tuned.
Crew Missing and Injured as Fire Spreads on Wan Hai Ship Off India
09.06.2025
The Indian Coast Guard and Navy are responding to an unfolding situation as a fire is burning on a Wan Hai containership off the west coast of India. Initial reports are that four crewmembers are listed as missing while 18 were rescued from a lifeboat and life raft, some with serious injuries, and were expected to be evacuated to India. In updated reports from the Indian Coast Guard the fire is continuing to spread on the abandoned vessel.
The authorities received a report at approximately 1230 local time on June 9 of a fire in one container that was spreading to others aboard the Singapore-flagged containership Wan Hai 503 (51,300 dwt). Images appear to show containers askew and burning on the forward part of the ship with reports in the media that at least 40 to 50 containers went overboard. At least one container is upside down and the door is open on another container. Later photos show the more containers consumed in the fire.
Media reports are saying there were multiple explosions aboard the vessel. The ship is reported to be transporting various hazardous materials, including flammable liquids and solids, spontaneous combustible substances, and toxic substances.
In a later update, the Indian Coast Guard said the situation remains critical and that all efforts are being made to stabilize the vessel. They are reporting that dense smoke is continuing to billow from the ship as the fire appears to have spread, raising fears of secondary explosions.
A call went out for assistance from passing vessels and the ONE Marvel containership diverted along with the MSC Ambra. The surviving 18 crewmembers have been transferred from lifeboats to an Indian Navy ship and are now en route to New Mangalore Port. The Indian media is reporting two are seriously injured and three others have less serious injuries. A search was ongoing for the missing crewmembers, which are reported to include two from Taiwan, one from Indonesia, and one from Myanmar.
The Indian Navy sent one vessel to assist. The Coast Guard also dispatched five ships and aircraft have also been sent to survey the scene.
The Wan Hai 503 is reported to be approximately 78 nautical miles southwest of the Kerala region of India. The vessel had departed Colombo on June 7 and was heading to Mumbai where it was due on June 10. The vessel was built in 2005 and has a capacity of 4,252 TEU. It is 882 feet (229 meters) in length. It underwent its last Port State inspection at the beginning of June in Mumbai and minor issues were cited with loading and unloading equipment and a workspace safety warning was issued, but there was no detention.
The situation continues to unfold with Wan Hai reportedly having retained firefighting and salvage tugs to head to the ship.
Pirates Board Cargo Ship and Abduct One Injured Crewmember
02.06.2025
Another cargo ship has been attacked in a violent incident of piracy off the coast of West Africa between Nigeria and São Tomé and Príncipe. Details of the incident remain vague, but it is a well-known area for piracy with the authorities warning vessels to use caution while transiting the region.
An unidentified cargo ship was boarded sailing according to the official account approximately 75 nautical miles northwest of Santo Antonio in São Tomé and Príncipe. Security consultants are placing the vessel 118 nautical miles northwest of Bonny, Nigeria.
The master of the vessel which reports said is registered in Curacao was in contact with the Maritime Domain Awareness for Trade in the Gulf of Guinea (MDAT-GoG) security operation providing updates as the situation unfolded. MDAT-GoG issued an alert reporting the boarding took place Saturday, May 30 although some reports said it started on Friday, May 29.
Initial indications were that seven armed perpetrators boarded the vessel with what appeared to be guns. The majority of the crew mustered in the citadel where they were able to monitor the incident as it unfolded using the vessel’s CCTV system. The perpetrators left the vessel and by May 31 MDAT-GoG was reporting the ship had been searched and confirmed no boarders remained aboard.
One seafarer was reported injured in the incident and in the confusion, it was unclear if it was the first or second engineer. Later reports confirmed it was the second engineer who was also missing, apparently kidnapped by the perpetrators.
The chief engineer of the vessel was later located onboard. The first engineer was among the crew locked in the citadel.
An inspection of the vessel reports the perpetrators also damaged some of the equipment on the bridge. Local authorities boarded the ship to assist the crew and according to the reports were escorting the ship to a port of refuge.
Security analysts have warned that while overall piracy has declined in the Gulf of Guinea, this area has become a hotbed of piracy activity. In April, another vessel reported being boarded and the crew’s belongings and other property were taken while the perpetrators were aboard for four hours. In March, there was a report of shots fired when pirates boarded a bitumen tanker. Family members reported that 10 crewmembers were abducted from the BITU River in that incident.
Salvage Tow Begins for Maersk Ship After Three Weeks Adrift in the Atlantic
19.05.2025
Maersk is confirming that an ocean-going salvage tug reached the disabled containership Maersk Sana on May 16 and that a salvage tow is commencing. The 102,000 dwt containership (8,450 TEU) was reported by Maersk to be “safely adrift at sea” near Bermuda since being disabled on April 28.
In a brief statement, a company spokesperson said that a “tugboat arrived at the location of the Sana and is in the process of towing her to a port of refuge in the Bahamas, with an expected arrival in the last week of May. Our monitoring teams continue to track weather developments and operational progress to ensure safe and efficient handling throughout this operation.”
AIS signals show the Sea1 Ruby (3,800 dwt) reached the containership. Earlier reports said the vessel would be bringing technicians and parts. Registered in Norway, the anchor handler is operated by Sea1 Offshore, the former Siem Offshore, which changed its corporate identity in 2024. Built in 2010, Sea1 reports the vessel has 28,000 BPH and a bollard pull capability of 310 tons.
The vessel’s AIS signal shows that it is bound for Freeport in the Bahamas, a tow of approximately 900 nautical miles, which at 5 knots would take seven days. The vessel made a stop in Ponta Delgada in the Azores before reaching the Maersk Sana.
Maersk previously said that it had selected a tug from Europe as “we wanted to employ a ‘first time right’ approach,” said the spokesperson. “We had to find the right tug for this operation, not necessarily the closest tug.”
Unconfirmed reports said the vessel experienced an explosion and fire in its engine room after departing the U.S. bound for Singapore. Maersk emphasized that while the vessel was drifting, it had power and the ability to use side thrusters for maneuvering. However, it was 75 nautical miles from Bermuda.
Three crewmembers were injured during the incident with one receiving First Aid on the ship. The other two were transferred to another Maersk vessel and later evacuated to Bermuda. One was treated and released in Bermuda while the third was later airlifted to the United States for further medical treatment. Maersk reports this crewmember remains in a hospital “in stable but critical condition and is receiving the best possible care.”
Maersk has committed to investigating the incident.
Global markets rally after temporary U.S.–China trade truce
12.05.2025
The U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, pausing the trade war and boosting global stock markets. U.S. tariffs will drop from 145% to 30%, and China’s from 125% to 10%.
While markets cheered the move, uncertainty remains. Core issues like trade imbalances, subsidies, and the fentanyl crisis remain unresolved. Businesses are cautious despite the relief.
Some companies are resuming shipments but remain wary of long-term policy shifts.